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Saturday, March 31, 2007

How Probability Play A Part In Investment?





To find out how arithmetic plays a part in an investment this question, I need to explain a little on the probability using the example of a coin.When I throw a coin and let it land onto the table, it is obvious that the coin is either showing head or tail.
What if I throw the coin twice, what are the chances of the coin showing head? I really cannot be sure what the chances are. I may get, is it 2 heads in a row, I may get 1 head and 1 tail or I may get 2 tails.What if I throw a hundred times? How many times is the coin showing head?
I will find that the number will probably be somewhere near 50. In other words, I will find that there is a fifty percent chance of getting a head if the number of throws is large enough.
The probability of getting a head is the chances of the coin showing head out of a large number of throws. That probability of getting a head is 0.5.
Similarly, when I throw a six-sided dice, the probability of getting a six in a 100 throws is about 1/6 chance. But I can do something to increase my odds of getting a six. I can use a modified six-sided dice that has a higher probability of showing a six compared to a normal six-sided dice. In this way, the probability of getting a six is increased.








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P.S: Mr. Robert Kiyosaki has his Rich Dad as his mentor while I have him and other Top Speakers and World Class Gurus as mine.
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